EXPLAINER | A nation divided: Marcos and Duterte battle on issues of governance

In the intricate realm of Philippine politics, alliances can be short-lived but influential. This is evident in the current alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, which is now facing significant challenges that could lead to major changes in the Philippine political scene.

In the midst of tensions, effective governance is of paramount importance as the nation faces economic difficulties including growing inflation and pervasive social unrest. While a minor decrease in inflation from 3.8% to 3.6% is anticipated in 2024, global uncertainties like El Niño and shifting oil prices pose a danger to further destabilize commodity prices, which might impact basic necessities like food. However, as the social discontent continues to simmer, especially among vulnerable groups, who feel the burden of wage stagnation and high living costs. The World Bank emphasizes that in order to safeguard vulnerable populations from economic downturns, social protection must be strengthened.

As the country gets closer to the 2025 midterm elections, both families are strategizing to reinforce their political power and secure future coalitions. The conflict between the Marcos and Duterte families could potentially lead to the disintegration of the so-called unity government, originally formed to maintain unity after their 2022 election pact. According to a survey conducted from September 10 to 14, 2023, by Pulse Asia, 69% of the Filipino populace expressed the belief that the government's efforts to alleviate hunger are inadequate, while 61% conveyed dissatisfaction with the government's performance in addressing crime and ensuring public safety.

A merging of political lineages in the Philippines, the relationship between the Marcos and Duterte families is symbolic of tough law enforcement and central control, hallmarks of strongman government. Sara Duterte and Marcos Jr. focused on promises of security, stability, and economic recovery during their joint campaign. They pledged to strengthen national defense, enhance infrastructure development, stimulate job creation, and support small enterprises. Additionally, they committed to improving education, disaster preparedness, and social welfare programs to address the needs of marginalized groups and foster community resilience.

However, they have frequently resorted to divisive tactics like martial law and vigorous anti-drug campaigns that defame human rights. This collaboration casts elite liberals who want social equality and democratic changes as out of touch with the interests of everyday Filipinos who want security and order in their lives, undermining their influence.

The Philippines is still dealing with the long-term effects of martial law and corruption from Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s regime, which lasted from 1965 to 1986. Wherein the government has left a legacy of poverty, social division, and unresolved injustices that continue to affect Filipino society today. Critics cast doubt on his administration's attempts to create infrastructure, including the building of roads, bridges, and the Cultural Center of the Philippines, by pointing to his alleged theft of $5 to $10 billion. Marcos Sr. 's supporters frequently recall his tenure as a time of discipline, stability, and notable economic progress, especially in areas like manufacturing and agriculture.

Political analyst Richard Heydarian noted, "The Marcos legacy continues to evoke strong emotions among the Filipino people," emphasizing the ongoing challenges faced by the current Marcos administration in addressing this complex historical legacy.

The legacy of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. evokes strong emotions among Filipinos today. Many remember the martial law era as a time of human rights abuses and corruption, leading to anger and resentment towards the Marcos family. The regime is associated with thousands of human rights violations, including disappearances and extrajudicial killings. While some older Filipinos view the Marcos era with nostalgia for its stability and growth, others strongly oppose the legacy.

The current Marcos administration, led by Marcos Jr., attempted to change public perception of his family's history. They are focusing on boosting the economy, aiding communities, and promoting unity and healing. By investing in infrastructure and public services, they hope to shift attention away from past mistakes. However, the lingering pain from the past is still impacting Philippine politics.

In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte climbed to popularity by promoting an extreme approach to crime and drugs. His reputation as a "simpleng tao", which made him popular with many Filipinos who found him grounded and accessible, was the source of his populist appeal. In a nation where political elites are sometimes seen as being cut off from the problems that regular people face on a daily basis, establishing this connection was essential.

Duterte’s immediate post-election drug battle was portrayed as a crucial step toward community protection and order recovery. Many supporters saw this program as an essential move to combat drug addiction and rampant crime, even in the face of international condemnation for human rights abuses linked to it. They also believed that it would create a safer environment for their family.

However, Duterte's aggressive war on drugs, resulting in numerous extrajudicial killings and international criticism. Reports estimate over 6,000 individuals were killed in anti-drug operations, while human rights groups claim the real toll could be as high as 30,000. This campaign led to condemnation from global entities such as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court (ICC), which opened a probe into potential crimes against humanity. Duterte remained defiant, defending his policies and emphasizing the campaign's goal of eradicating illegal drugs in the Philippines.

The UniTeam alliance between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte reshaped Philippine politics in the 2022 elections by combining the political strength of the Marcoses and the Dutertes. This collaboration united diverse regional and socioeconomic voter bases, creating a powerful electoral force. The alliance strategically merged older Marcos loyalists with Duterte's strong following from the 2016 election, where her father, Rodrigo Duterte, won the presidency.

Both Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte pledged to implement economic recovery plans to address the financial challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Their proposals focus on stabilizing food prices, boosting job opportunities, and assisting small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Marcos Jr. stressed the importance of prioritizing the economy post-pandemic and highlighted plans to rebuild industries and create jobs for those affected. Marcos Jr. emphasized that creating jobs will need to boost the expansion of infrastructure, tourism, and agriculture—especially for MSMEs, or micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises—which are the primary driving forces of the economy. He made the point that boosting tourism in particular may be extremely helpful in this recovery endeavor by drawing tourists from both local and foreign locations, which would help to create jobs and strengthen the economy.

Marcos Jr. has pledged to carry on the infrastructure initiative "Build, Build, Build" that his predecessor began, with the goal of promoting additional growth and establishing a stable atmosphere for investment. He pointed out that facilitating business in the Philippines will draw in foreign capital, which is essential for the country's long-term economic viability.

Sara Duterte underlined the necessity of carrying out her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte's robust anti-crime and anti-terrorism measures when speaking about national security. "Our policy against criminals and terrorists and those that support and espouse their ideologies of violence should be hardline. We should show no mercy to criminals and terrorists," she said, emphasizing that the country's rehabilitation hinges on taking a clear position against threats to peace.

In the May 2022 Pulse Asia survey conducted from April 16 to 21,  Marcos Jr. received 56% of voter preferences for the presidency, while Duterte secured 60% of preferences for the vice-presidency. This survey closely mirrored the election results, indicating widespread support that translated into electoral victories, especially in key areas such as Mindanao, Metro Manila, and the Ilocos region.

The UniTeam alliance of Marcos Jr. and Duterte, won the 2022 Philippine national elections with an overwhelming majority. Marcos Jr. received over 30 million votes, accounting for 58.9% of the total, while Duterte received 30.3 million votes (or 61.2%). This victory is seen as one of the biggest electoral wins in the country's history.

The recent electoral victory in the Philippines has been interpreted by political analysts as indicative of an increasing inclination among Filipinos towards strongman leadership. This trend is believed to stem from a culmination of factors including prolonged political instability, economic disparity, and disillusionment with post-dictatorship administrations.

This transition is considered to be a response to years of political instability and economic difficulties, which have left many citizens frustrated with the promises of past administrations. According to analysts, a large number of people believe strongman leaders can establish the order and enforce the law necessary to deal with persistent problems like unemployment, poverty, and crime.

The tendency to give precedence to authoritative figures also reflects a larger feeling of disappointment with the administrations of the post-Marcos era, which have frequently failed to implement reforms and lower inequality. The electoral victory of Sara Duterte and the return of the Marcos family to power indicate an urge for stability and decisive action, even if it means endorsing politicians with dubious backgrounds. It seems that a lot of Filipinos think that strong leadership—even dictatorial leadership—may be required to get the nation through its problems.

Sociologist Marco Garrido from the University of Chicago highlights the prevailing sentiment of disillusionment among voters in the Philippines. Many Filipinos are disheartened by the perceived failure of traditional democratic processes to address persistent issues such as poverty, corruption, and inadequate public services. This discontent has prompted a search for alternative approaches that promise more effective solutions. Consequently, there is a growing skepticism towards established democratic practices, with citizens questioning their ability to bring about the desired change.

Garrido's analysis indicates a shift in public sentiment, with more Filipinos expressing a preference for "illiberal rule," leading to the rising popularity of strong leaders such as Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Rodrigo Duterte. These leaders resonate with voters seeking decisive action and stability, particularly in response to what they perceive as the inadequacy of previous liberal policies. Many citizens are attracted to the prospect of strong leadership that pledges swift action on pressing issues, even if it means departing from democratic norms. This trend reflects a broader global pattern, wherein unconventional leaders are increasingly sought after for their perceived ability to provide solutions to societal challenges.

In late 2023,  Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte's alliance showed noticeable cracks due to their differing views on governance. Marcos Jr. focused on economic growth and infrastructure, while Sara Duterte emphasized social welfare and poverty alleviation. Their leadership styles, foreign relations approaches, and views on law enforcement also diverged, leading to tensions within their alliance and potential impact on the political landscape in the Philippines.

Marcos placed a strong emphasis on economic recovery, focusing on addressing inflation and stimulating investment through the Maharlika Investment Fund. However, this strategy faced criticism from economists who expressed concerns about possible corruption risks, drawing comparisons to the controversial history of the Marcos family. On the other hand, Sara Duterte advocated for a more militaristic governance approach, highlighting national security and law enforcement as top priorities. This significant disparity in their priorities has underscored the increasing tensions within their coalition.

On June 5, 2023, during a public speech, Vice President Sara Duterte notably omitted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s middle name, seen as a way of creating distance. At a tribute event for her supporters, she humorously remarked, “Hindi ko na banggitin ang middle initial niya… Apo, alam mo ‘yan na mahal kita,” eliciting laughter but also fueling speculation about her relationship with Marcos Jr.

Moving to January 28, 2024, tensions heightened when former President Rodrigo Duterte, at a rally in Davao City, referred to Marcos as "bangag," implying drug use, and accused him of wanting to rule with an iron fist like his father. This inflammatory comment deepened the divide between their political factions.

The following day, despite the rising tensions, Sara Duterte tried to downplay the situation by publicly stating, "We have no issues with each other. President Bongbong Marcos and I are on good terms." This was part of her strategy to maintain her political position amid growing criticisms.

However, on April 18, 2024, First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos expressed her frustration with Sara Duterte for attending a rally where her husband was criticized. She said, “I was hurt because my husband will do everything to protect you. You ran together during the elections, right—we will rise together.” This comment underscored the personal conflicts developing within the alliance as political loyalties began to shift.

The senatorial slate unveiled for the 2025 elections by the administration represents a meticulously crafted blend of incumbents and political veterans. This strategic composition aims to ensure continuity in governance and a strong rapport with the electorate. 

Sara Duterte's stance on the 2025 senatorial elections is significant due to her influential role in Philippine politics. She has stated that she will not participate in any capacity, despite requests from Marcos Jr. and her father, former President Duterte, to endorse and campaign for their respective senatorial slates.

Last July 2024, Duterte conveyed, "Before I resigned (from Lakas-CMD), we had a meeting where President Marcos invited me to assist in the administration's senatorial campaign... I informed him of my non-participation in the midterm elections." She also mentioned receiving a similar request from her father: "My father also invited me to support PDP-Laban candidates, but I provided him with the same response."

The resignation from the Cabinet is widely seen as a pivotal move in her political approach. According to Former House Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, “Resigning from the Cabinet could be a good step forward for the vice president. She now has more options... to serve the people without the shackles imposed upon her.”

However, there are doubts among some analysts about her capability to lead the opposition. They point out that she has not taken responsibility for her past actions and the contentious use of funds during her time in office. Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor, stressed that a strong performance by Marcos Jr. in the midterms could strengthen his legislative plans, indicating that Sara Duterte's decision not to participate in the race might reduce her influence in the future.