The United States-Philippines alliance’s prospects after the US election

With 50.4% of votes from the people in America, Donald Trump made a historical comeback as he won the presidential bid. Donald Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives due to the following reasons: abuse of power and igniting insurrection. 

Trump's first impeachment came in 2019, when he was accused of pressing Ukraine to investigate his political foe, Joe Biden, in exchange for administration assistance. The second impeachment in 2021 was for incitement to insurrection, amid the January 6 Capitol riot, in which Trump was accused of urging his supporters to attack the US Capitol to interrupt the certification of Biden's electoral triumph. 

With these impeachments, Trump became the first president in US history to be impeached twice. As he prepares for another term in office, several nations particularly our country worry about the direction his presidency will take in the following years. 

Since the United States and the Philippines have a long-standing diplomatic relationship, the elections in the United States have a considerable impact on the political aspect of the Philippines and society. The United States has long been a significant ally of our nation—influencing national and international policies through economic and military assistance. 

After World War II ended and the Philippines gained independence on July 4 of that year, the United States and the Philippines established diplomatic ties in 1946. After the Spanish-American War, the United States colonized the Philippines for about 48 years. This was a change from that time.

The U.S. colonization brought a Western-style democratic government; English as the dominant language and a market-oriented economy, but it also disrupted traditional governance and contributed to economic disparity. The two nations have remained close ever since, working together on trade, defense, and cultural exchange initiatives.

In his inauguration speech in 2017, President Donald J. Trump announced his America First approach, which drastically differs from previous administrations in that it places a higher priority on American national interests while minimizing commitments abroad. The Philippines, with whom it has historically maintained a standing alliance, was somewhat alarmed by this shift, and the relationship's stability seemed to be fading over time.

The amount of yearly U.S. assistance varied and several aid programs in the Philippines were discontinued under Trump; this decrease showed how the Trump administration has given Southeast Asia less attention. For instance, under the Trump administration, USAID's budget was decreased, resulting in reduced project funding.

The amount of American aid, military cooperation, and international influence on Philippine governance may change with Trump’s incoming term, as may U.S. foreign policy. Security agreements like the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which are essential to the Philippines' national security, particularly given national concerns in the West Philippine Sea—can be directly impacted by changes in U.S. leadership. 

The Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) are crucial to the Philippines' national security, especially in addressing difficulties in the West Philippine Sea. These agreements strengthen the Philippines' military capabilities with US aid, including modern technology, intelligence sharing, and defensive capabilities against external threats.

America has the most advantageous strategic position in the Philippines out of all Southeast Asian nations. The reason for this is mainly our nation's location at the intersection of important marine routes. Furthermore, EDCA grants access to military bases such as Subic Bay, ensuring speedy US deployment in the region. The Philippines' involvement in America's Indo-Pacific strategy is strengthened through collaboration based on shared interests and historical links. 

The United States-Philippines alliance has historically depended on security accords like the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), which provide a strong foundation for collaboration. The 1951 MDT binds both countries to defend one another in the event of an armed attack.

However, during Trump’s first term, his policy approach led to several questions about the United States’ commitment to the MDT, as Trump emphasized that allies should pay more for their own defense. This rhetoric created uncertainty in the Philippines, especially amid rising tensions in the West Philippine Sea.

With China's growing influence undermining Philippine sovereignty, the West Philippine Sea continues to be a major security worry for the Philippines. Given that Trump has a history of giving business commitments precedence over military commitments in areas outside of the core U.S. interests, the nature of a Trump government may have an impact on this issue. 

Early in his presidency, Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) , a trade agreement designed to deepen economic relations between Pacific states and counteract China's economic influence. By quitting this pact, the United States created a strategic vacuum in the region, indicating a preference for bilateral commercial arrangements over multilateral initiatives with security repercussions.

Trump's vague position raised fears that the United States might not immediately engage if China's aggression intensifies, despite the fact that the country has carried out freedom of navigation operations in the West Philippine Sea.

According to Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “I worry a little bit that Donald Trump himself probably doesn't feel as invested as Kamala Harris would.” 

Furthermore, a 2020 Social Weather Stations survey revealed that around 60% of Filipinos were in favor of American forces being stationed in the country. They thought that the government's efforts to conduct joint patrols and military drills with partners and allies were more than enough to protect our country from threats. 

The Philippines runs the risk of being marginalized in U.S. security considerations as Trump's "America First" strategy places an emphasis on a more focused attention to direct U.S. interests. In order to offset China's regional dominance, several political experts suggested that the Philippines form alternative alliances, citing Japan and other ASEAN countries as possible security allies. To avoid being unduly dependent on the United States, the Philippines may increase its engagement with ASEAN now that Trump has been re-elected. 

According to Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations, Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines are building connections with regional neighbors such as Japan and Vietnam, partly because of shared fears about China's assertiveness. This strategy aims to reduce dependence on the US and balance regional power dynamics.

The Philippines is a significant factor in regional dynamics as an ASEAN member, and the United States should be conscious of how it interacts with ASEAN, which is typically wary of the Philippines' issues with China. In light of the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under a new administration, the Philippines should stay aligned with ASEAN to avoid being completely vulnerable to China. Having a strengthened position within the ASEAN community, our nation might stand a chance to balance its needs.

Aside from that, Trump’s first term saw stricter immigration policies, impacting the Filipino diaspora significantly. As of 2020, the U.S. had over 4 million Filipino residents, many of whom were directly affected by Trump's tightened visa restrictions and family reunification policies. For instance, Trump’s 2017 "travel ban" policies indirectly affected Filipino immigrants, as additional vetting procedures lengthened processing times and made family reunification more challenging.

The Philippines is one of the world’s largest migrant-sending countries, with remittances contributing over 10% of its GDP. In 2019 alone, Filipinos in the U.S. sent nearly $12 billion in remittances, a major source of economic stability. Trump’s immigration policies could reduce these remittances, impacting millions of Filipino families who rely on this income for daily needs, education, and healthcare.

In addition to immigration, Trump’s authoritarian-leaning rhetoric has raised concerns among democracy advocates in the Philippines. Critics have labeled him a “fascist” for his divisive language and actions, such as downplaying democratic norms and endorsing leaders with authoritarian tendencies. Some Filipinos worry that a second Trump administration might embolden authoritarian-leaning politicians in the Philippines, with potential implications for press freedom and human rights.  

Trump might deprioritize democratic values in favor of pragmatic alliances, potentially leading to a stronger U.S.-Philippines relationship but at the expense of human rights. As journalist Maria Ressa, a prominent critic of authoritarianism, has warned, “democracy can be fragile if leaders disregard accountability,” a sentiment relevant to both the U.S. and the Philippines.

With approximately 4.1 million Filipino Americans living in the U.S. as of 2022, policies enacted by the Trump administration could have far-reaching consequences for Filipino communities in the U.S. and their families in the Philippines. Trump’s historically restrictive approach to immigration, which includes limiting family-based immigration and tightening visa regulations, could disrupt family unity, affect remittance flows, and create social strain for Filipino communities already navigating challenges in the U.S.

One of the primary economic impacts would be felt through remittances—an essential financial lifeline for millions of Filipino families. According to data from the Philippine Central Bank, remittances from Filipino Americans make up nearly 40% of the $36 billion remitted to the Philippines annually. These funds support education, healthcare, and everyday expenses for families back home. However, draconian immigration policies, such as stricter work visa restrictions and deportation measures, could jeopardize the job security of many Filipino Americans, potentially reducing the amount of remittances sent to the Philippines. This decline could have serious repercussions for the Filipino economy, as remittances account for around 9% of the country’s GDP.

Socially, policies that impact immigration and family reunification could lead to prolonged family separations. The U.S. immigration system has long prioritized family-based visas, but tighter policies may restrict the ability of Filipino Americans to bring their relatives to the U.S. In the Filipino culture, family is highly valued, and these prolonged separations could lead to emotional strain, affecting mental health and family cohesion.

Further compounding the issue, Filipino Americans often work in essential industries, including healthcare, where they make up a large portion of the workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Filipinos represent nearly a third of all foreign-born registered nurses in the U.S., a role critical during the pandemic. However, restrictive immigration policies could reduce the pool of new healthcare professionals from the Philippines, further straining the workforce and impacting the livelihood of Filipino healthcare workers who rely on career opportunities in the U.S. For Filipino families depending on relatives in the U.S. healthcare sector, this would mean fewer resources and greater vulnerability to policy changes that impact employment stability.

Discrimination and social alienation are additional concerns. Under Trump’s previous administration, Asian-American communities reported increases in incidents of racism and discrimination, which peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Filipino-Americans, like other Asian-American groups, have faced incidents of racial bias and xenophobia. 

Trump’s rhetoric, often perceived as divisive, could contribute to an environment where Filipino-Americans feel unsafe or marginalized, impacting their quality of life and sense of belonging. A 2021 survey by Stop AAPI Hate reported over 6,600 incidents of anti-Asian hate, and a significant portion of these were directed at Filipino Americans, underscoring the challenges they face amid heightened racial tensions.

Draconian policies under the Trump administration could have ripple effects across the Filipino community in the U.S. and the Philippines, impacting financial security, family unity, social integration, and community well-being.

Historically, the U.S. has enjoyed a positive reputation in the Philippines, with surveys often showing Filipinos as some of the most pro-American people globally. For instance, a 2019 Pew Research Center poll indicated that 80% of Filipinos viewed the U.S. favorably. However, Trump’s controversial policies, especially his tough stance on immigration and divisive rhetoric, have generated mixed reactions among Filipinos. Many fear that his re-election could mean reduced support for immigrant communities and a more unpredictable foreign policy that may affect Filipinos both in the U.S. and at home.

In the Philippines, Trump’s “America First” stance has been viewed both positively and negatively. Supporters appreciate his commitment to protecting U.S. interests, which some see as a model for assertive nationalism. On the other hand, critics argue that his policies create global instability and encourage a unilateral approach that overlooks the needs of allies, including the Philippines.

In a 2020 survey by the Asian American Voter Survey, nearly 60% of Filipino Americans reported disapproval of Trump’s immigration policies, which affected family reunification and employment opportunities. Given the strong ties between Filipino Americans and their families in the Philippines, Trump’s re-election could create unease among families reliant on remittances and visa applications. As former Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Cuisia noted, “the diaspora is a bridge between our countries, and policies that affect them reverberate across Filipino society.”

Trump’s stance on China and his inconsistent approach to the West Philippine Sea issue has also stirred public opinion in the Philippines. While Trump has taken a tougher rhetorical stance on China, his administration’s mixed signals have left Filipinos uncertain about the U.S.’s commitment to their security. A 2021 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found that 54% of Filipinos believed the U.S. was the Philippines' best ally, but nearly 40% expressed concerns over the U.S.'s reliability in a crisis. This ambivalence suggests that while Filipinos value the U.S. partnership, Trump’s unpredictable approach leaves them cautious.

Finally, Trump’s re-election could have lasting effects on U.S.-Philippines Relations, particularly among younger Filipinos who are more critical of authoritarianism and value-based alliances. Surveys indicate that younger Filipinos increasingly favor aligning with countries that support democratic values and human rights. According to the 2022 Asian Barometer Survey, 65% of young Filipinos view democracy as essential, with many expressing concern over authoritarian trends globally. Trump’s potential second term could lead to a generational divide in public opinion, with older Filipinos viewing the U.S. as a steadfast ally, while younger Filipinos push for a more values-driven partnership.