Joseph Azil Buena

More than a month into the national campaign period, Senate race poll rankings remain largely unchanged, with candidates backed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. securing a majority and media personalities maintaining strong positions in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) monthly survey released on March 26.

Photo Courtesy of Presidential Communications Office/Social Weather Stations.

According to the March 2025 polls, nine of the 13 leading senatorial candidates based on public opinion nationwide were from the Marcos administration’s Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas slate.

Tied in the first two spots were incumbent lawmakers Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo, who had repeatedly been in the top of the polls since December 2024, both garnering 42 percent approval of the poll responses.

Rep. Tulfo, an Alyansa member and a former broadcaster, had consistently secured the first spot since last year but saw a slight decline in his percentage, dropping from 45 percent to 42 percent.

Meanwhile, Sen. Go, a close ally of former president Rodrigo Duterte and described as an opposition force, caught up with a 4-percent increase this March, resulting in the said tie with Tulfo.

Radio-television personality Ben “Bitag” Tulfo, brother of Erwin, and former senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, another Marcos ally, tied for the third to fourth spots with 34 percent voter preference each, improving from their previous fourth and fifth places in February.

Following them are four more allies from Marcos’ Alyansa ticket, with actors-turned-senators Lito Lapid in 5th place at 34 percent and Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. in 6th place at 32 percent.
 
Sen. Pia Cayetano and former Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson tied for the 7th to 8th spots with 31 percent each, maintaining their usual spots from the previous months’ polls.

On the other hand, Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a close Duterte ally, rose a few spots to 9th place with 30 percent of the voting preferences, followed by television host and political neophyte Willie Revillame at 10th place with 28 percent.

The remaining slots of the projected ‘Magic 12’ saw a three-way tie by, still, Marcos-backed candidates namely Makati City Mayor Abby Binay, Sen. Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao, and House Deputy Speaker and Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar, all with 27 percent of the vote shares each.

Slightly below the line were the opposition tandem of former senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, who placed 14th and 15th, with 24 and 21 percent of the respondents’ votes, respectively.

The SWS March 2025 National Survey, conducted in partnership with Stratbase Consultancy from March 15 to 20, polled 1,800 registered Filipino voters on their preferred candidates among 66 senatorial candidates if the 2025 midterm elections were held those days.

With a national margin of error of ±2.31% and regional margins of ±3.27% for Luzon (excluding Metro Manila) and ±5.66% for Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao, the results were weighed and adjusted using precinct data from the Commision on Elections to ensure accuracy.

The 2025 midterm elections on May 12, the first major poll under the Marcos administration, will elect 12 senators alongside 317 district and party-list representatives, and local officials nationwide.

Post-Duterte ICC arrest effects?

The survey is the first to be released since the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte earlier this March on charges of crimes against humanity and amid protests from pro-Duterte supporters demanding his release and criticisms directed at the Marcos administration.

According to political scientist and WR Numero CEO Cleve Arguelles, the latest survey results show no significant shifts in senatorial rankings, with the standings remaining largely consistent despite recent political developments.

Arguelles, however, highlighted Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go’s 4-percentage-point increase, calling him the “biggest winner” in the recent polls.

He noted that determining whether Duterte’s arrest influenced Go’s rise would require further analysis and a closer look at upcoming survey trends to identify any emerging patterns.

With Go recognized as the "biggest winner," presidential sister Sen. Imee Marcos was named as the "biggest loser" due to a significant drop in her vote share compared to the February polls.

Despite previously securing a spot in the ‘Magic 12,’ Marcos has seen her rankings decline after withdrawing from her brother’s Alyansa slate, now placing 16th following a 5-percentage-point drop from the February polls.

Arguelles pointed to Marcos' conflicting statements on Duterte’s arrest as a possible factor in her decline, suggesting that both pro-Marcos and pro-Duterte voters may be uncertain about her stance.