Adi Joaquim Tolentino

The Philippine government is accelerating efforts to boost its earthquake preparedness in anticipation of a possible magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault that could kill up to 50,000 people and injure around 160,000 in Metro Manila.

Photo Courtesy of Tremors.

During the Security Bank’s First Quarter 2025 Townhall on May 3, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Administrator Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno renewed the call for urgency, saying the country must act now to save lives.

“The most effective way to reduce the impact of earthquakes is through proactive preparation, community awareness, and strict adherence to safety standards,” Nepomuceno said. 

Nepomuceno stressed that earthquake readiness must rest on three pillars: engineering solutions, public awareness, and response capability.

“Compliance with the National Building Code is non-negotiable,” he said, noting that buildings must withstand at least a magnitude 8.5 tremor.

To address this, the OCD is working with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and engineers from the private sector to improve construction standards and crack down on substandard steel imports.

The agency also recommends the use of HazardHunterPH, a free online tool that helps identify fault lines and geohazards to avoid risky construction zones.

Nepomuceno urged developers and homeowners alike to stop cutting corners when applying for building permits and to prioritize structural integrity.

“Those who plan to build houses or buildings, we should follow the law and stop looking for shortcuts in the process of securing construction and occupancy permits,” he said in a separate interview with Super Radyo DZBB.

He warned that more structures have been built since a 2004 study by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency showed that four million people could be at risk from a magnitude 7 earthquake.

While the “Big One” dominates public concern due to its proximity to Metro Manila, Nepomuceno reminded the public that six other active faults also pose threats to provinces like Abra, Bohol, and Davao.

“We should not only prepare for the Big One. We have six other active trenches. There are two levels of preparations: for response by the national government agencies, we are ready, and the plans are in place. But [the second level of preparation is] for the engineering solutions, [and] we have to catch up,” he said.

In terms of response capability, Nepomuceno admitted the country still lags behind earthquake-resilient nations like Japan, which has over 12,000 trained responders.

“We have 20,000 people in government who are equipped to respond, but again, that is for reaction. What is important is the engineering solution. Let’s not leave it all up to the national government,” Nepomuceno noted.

He cited that the OCD has actively coordinated with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), Red Cross, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), and other agencies to increase the number of trained responders. 

The OCD is also building a unified roster of deployable personnel and working with student volunteers from the National Service Training Program and groups like the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation.

While drills such as “duck, cover, and hold” remain important, Nepomuceno said they are reactive and must be complemented by robust infrastructure and community planning.

“The ‘duck, cover, and hold’ exercise is important, but we must also adopt proactive measures,” urging Filipinos to take individual responsibility and ensure their homes and communities are built to withstand future quakes.

The West Valley Fault is set to have a recurrence interval of approximately 400 years, with the last major movement occurring more than 360 years ago, making a big earthquake highly probable.