EXPLAINER | The proxy’s gambit

The existing conflict between the Middle East regional powers (Iran and Israel) has entered a new phase. However, this is no sudden flare-up. The Friday attack by Israel and Iran’s retaliation are a new opening to the long-standing proxy war between the two forces, shaped by ideology, geopolitics, and allegiances. 

At the center of this geopolitical chessboard stand Israel and Iran. These two regional powers hold opposing voices: Israel seeks to counter existential threats, secure it’s borders, and safeguard its status as a nuclear-weapon state and U.S. ally.  Iran, as a theocratic state, aims to bolster its “Axis of Resistance” and expel Western influences.

To detail more specifically:

Israel aims to:

Iran aims to:

Beyond these two main players, several global and regional powers are also drawn in. The United States (U.S) is a steadfast ally of Israel, seeking to gain a foothold in the Middle East, intelligence, and advanced technological partnerships. Israel, to the U.S., is also seen as a counterweight to its rivals like the Soviet Union (USSR), as observed during the Cold War. Conversely, Iran has sought alignment with militant and political organizations in the Middle East.

The Israel-Iran conflict traces back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, where Israel was rebranded as an enemy of Islam by Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime. Before this, Israel enjoyed diplomatic alliances with the Shah’s Iran. This made the state a target for the new Islamic Republic’s ideology. Over the years, the two foes have made countless moves utilizing political maneuvering and religious rhetoric in order to build alliances with external political actors and justify their committed hostilities.

Iran constructed a set of its key allies, collectively called as the Axis of Resistance which includes: the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and some militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF; or the al-Hashd al-Shaabi). In addition, Iran has worked to strengthen ties with China and maintains a strategic alliance with Russia.

Meanwhile, Israel forged ties with the Sunni Arab nations through accords such as the Abraham Accords, and with the U.S., with its genesis marked by the U.S. being the first country to recognize Israel as a new nation in 1948, and with diplomatic relations formally established the following year. Primarily, the development of their ties is marked by close political, economic, and military cooperation.

Hamas’ attack on Israel back on October 7, 2023, sparked the cold-blooded war erupted by Israel on Gaza that killed over 35,000 Palestinians. This was the turning point that resurfaced long unsown grievances, heightened the fear of a larger-scale regional war, and set in motion the cycle of escalation in the Middle East that is still unfolding.

Factors that have contributed to the recent intensification are:

Israel and Iran’s conflict isn’t a mere war between kings; they are playing all their pieces to strengthen their fortresses. 

The network of asymmetric power projection created by Iran's proxies is extensive.  Despite not being officially affiliated with Iran's military, these organizations share similar ideologies, are frequently provided with training and funding by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and are essential to Tehran's deterrent policy through regional saturation.

Israel's proxy strategy relies more on official ties and strategic partnerships—most notably with the United States—than on militias.

When combined, these networks extend the war well beyond the boundaries of Israel and Iran, into the cyber infrastructure, economic corridors, and airspace of the larger West Asian region.

Civilians, especially Palestinians, 

A destabilized Middle East that impedes international trade, exacerbates sectarian tensions, and scuttles peace initiatives among Muslim-majority countries is the wider result of this proxy conflict.  Amid upheaval, humanitarian supply lanes close, oil prices rise, and non-state players amass political capital.  Most dangerously, it gets more difficult to see a future in the region that is focused on diplomacy or civilians, the longer the fight lasts.

In certain respects, yes. The world's focus is diverted from the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza as headlines focus on regional missile launches and great-power posture. Instead of being a response to the occupation and bombardment of Palestinians, Iran's engagement is sometimes portrayed as a regional chess move. The risk here is that Gaza will fade into the background, a tragedy marginalized for the sake of a show.

Though the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific are at a distance from across the board, including the Philippines, effects are bound to trickle. 

Inflation and energy security throughout Southeast Asia are directly impacted by rising oil prices and shipping interruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines faces economic shocks due to its reliance on Middle Eastern labor markets and commercial networks.  Furthermore, increased U.S. engagement in West Asia would cause the country to refocus its strategic priorities away from the Indo-Pacific, changing alliances and focus at a time when ASEAN is already juggling escalating South China Sea tensions.

1. Stay informed: 

The public must resist disinformation and forcefully imposed narratives. They must come to realize the gravity; this is a worldwide struggle for justice, power, and survival, not just a local conflict.

       2. Support humanitarian efforts:

Contribute, collect money for, or spread the word about reputable humanitarian projects that assist people in Gaza, Lebanon, and other conflict-affected countries.

       3. Demand moral clarity and accountability:

In the Philippines and the Asia-Pacific region, the media, decision-makers, and civil society must oppose euphemisms and unfair practices. Israeli or Palestinian civilian casualties must be categorically denounced.

        4. Engage diplomatically:

The Philippines, through its Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), may back ASEAN-led demands for ceasefires and U.N. peacebuilding because of its experience in peacebuilding accountability as well as de-escalation in the region.

As this conflict drags on, danger and unrest do so as well. The world watches as it gets further and further entangled in the political, economic, and humanitarian fallout of the Middle East. The Proxy’s Gambit is not just a spectacle of regional powers—it is a game played on the backs of the powerless. And it is high time we stopped being mere spectators.