Micah Jemimah Calahat

Before, we could only predict when a typhoon was coming—but not the deadly floods that often followed. Now, scientists have made it possible to activate a headstart tool to reshape disaster preparedness in the Philippines.

Photo Courtesy of CNN.

With hopes of elevating flood control and saving more lives, a group of researchers from the University of the Philippines-Diliman (UPD) developed a system that can predict floods 24 hours in advance.
The Impact-Based Flooding Forecast System was released in 2024 and has been available to the public up to date. According to Alfredo Mahar Lagmay, a professor at the University of the Philippines – Diliman College of Science’s National Institute of Geological Sciences (UPD-CS NIGS) and one of the scientists of the study, the system was able to predict flooding in Davao, Palawan and Borongan recently. Moreover, the study won as the best innovation pitch among 64 entries nationwide in the Preparedness and Response Excellence in the Philippines (PREP) Innovation Challenge organized by the United Nations World Food Programme and the USAID. One step ahead
“This system can predict when a neighborhood is likely to expect a major flood event 24 hours in advance,” said Lagmay. Existing systems used by weather forecasting agencies are only limited to determining the rainfall or river levels. An impact-based flood forecasting system goes beyond. It combines both weather and hydrological forecasts with information about specific vulnerable areas, neighborhoods, population density, and infrastructure to assess the possible amount of damage of the flood. By using predicted total rainfall and 100-year rain return flood hazard maps, the tool forecasts potential flooding in specific areas. Additionally, it improves accuracy by adapting global weather models to the country’s distinct geography and climate conditions. “On the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH website), users can view areas at risk of flooding from severe weather in either map or table format, along with information on the estimated number of people who may be affected, broken down to the barangay level,” Lagmay added. A nation on alert
The Philippines is no stranger to flooding — approximately 20 typhoon cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year, gravely posing critical threats on both humanity and economic stability. As of writing, heavy rains triggering floods continue to persist in areas across the country, displacing thousands of people. But since the system narrows to detecting floods in small-scale barangays, local officials and residents are now able to strengthen evacuation plans in advance, prepare relief goods, and actively mobilize rescue teams before the flood even happens. Moreover, the tool fosters citizen participation through the LyfSaver app, where Filipinos can report floods in their area. Lagmay emphasized further development of the tool’s functions, collaborations among citizens and stakeholders, and good governance are essential for improving disaster risk reduction and management in the country. The scientists said although the research achieved a breakthrough, it is just the beginning of a larger process towards resiliency. “We will add more hazards such as rain-triggered landslides and possibly storm surge hazards to the forecasting system,” Lagmay shared. With this 24-hour headstart, the Philippines now stands from barely bracing for typhoons to actively preparing for the floods that follow.